Assessing how well a modeling protocol captures a structure-activity landscape

We introduce the notion of structure-activity landscape index (SALI) curves as a way to assess a model and a modeling protocol, applied to structure-activity relationships. We start from our earlier work [J. Chem. Inf. Model., 2008, 48, 646-658], where we show how to study a structure-activity relationship pairwise, based on the notion of "activity cliffs"pairs of molecules that are structurally similar but have large differences in activity. There, we also introduced the SALI parameter, which allows one to identify cliffs easily, and which allows one to represent a structure-activity relationship as a graph. This graph orders every pair of molecules by their activity. Here, we introduce the new idea of a SALI curve, which tallies how many of these orderings a model is able to predict. Empirically, testing these SALI curves against a variety of models, ranging over two-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship (2D-QSAR), three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship (3D-QSAR), and structure-based design models, the utility of a model seems to correspond to characteristics of these curves. In particular, the integral of these curves, denoted as SCI and being a number ranging from-1.0 to 1.0, approaches a value of 1.0 for two literature models, which are both known to be prospectively useful.