Northern hemisphere temperature variability for the past three centuries: Tree-ring and model estimates

被引:28
作者
D'Arrigo, R [1 ]
Jacoby, G
Free, M
Robock, A
机构
[1] Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Tree Ring Lab, Palisades, NY 10964 USA
[2] Univ Maryland, Dept Meteorol, College Pk, MD 20742 USA
基金
美国国家航空航天局; 美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
D O I
10.1023/A:1005471918574
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
We compare Northern Hemisphere energy-balance-model temperature calculations to an annual temperature reconstruction based on 20 tree-ring width records from latitudinal and elevational treeline sites in northern North America, Scandinavia, Siberia and Mongolia for the past three centuries. The energy-balance model uses three primary forcings; solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic trace gas and aerosol variations. Several different parameterizations of the forcings are compared. The best agreement (r = 0.8) is found when the annual reconstruction is compared to a version of the model using (1) the Dust Veil Index of Lamb, (2) a solar parameterization which includes the length of the solar cycle, and (3) anthropogenic forcing. The implication is that all three forcings are important in explaining the temperature variations. The general similarity in low-frequency trends between the two independently-derived time series supports the validity of both the model estimates and the tree-ring reconstruction.
引用
收藏
页码:663 / 675
页数:13
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