Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: a modelling study

被引：1506

作者：

Blach, Sarah ^{[1
]}

Zeuzem, Stefan ^{[2
]}

Manns, Michael ^{[3
]}

Altraif, Ibrahim ^{[4
,5
]}

Duberg, Ann-Sofi ^{[6
,7
]}

Muljono, David H. ^{[8
,9
]}

Waked, Imam ^{[10
]}

Alavian, Seyed M. ^{[11
,12
]}

Lee, Mei-Hsuan ^{[13
]}

Negro, Francesco ^{[14
,15
]}

Abaalkhail, Faisal ^{[16
]}

Abdou, Ahmed ^{[17
]}

Abdulla, Maheeba ^{[18
]}

Abou Rached, Antoine ^{[19
]}

Aho, Inka ^{[20
]}

Akarca, Ulus ^{[21
]}

Al Ghazzawi, Imad ^{[22
]}

Al Kaabi, Saad ^{[23
]}

Al Lawati, Faryal ^{[24
]}

Al Namaani, Khalid ^{[25
]}

Al Serkal, Youssif ^{[26
]}

Al-Busafi, Said A. ^{[27
]}

Al-Dabal, Layla ^{[28
]}

Aleman, Soo ^{[29
,30
]}

Alghamdi, Abdullah S. ^{[31
]}

Aljumah, Abdulrahman A. ^{[4
,5
]}

Al-Romaihi, Hamad E. ^{[32
]}

Andersson, Monique I. ^{[33
]}

Arendt, Vic ^{[34
,35
]}

Arkkila, Perttu ^{[36
]}

Assiri, Abdullah M. ^{[37
]}

Baatarkhuu, Oidov ^{[38
]}

Bane, Abate ^{[39
]}

Ben-Ari, Ziv ^{[40
]}

Bergin, Colm ^{[41
,42
]}

Bessone, Fernando ^{[43
]}

Bihl, Florian ^{[44
]}

Bizri, Abdul R. ^{[45
]}

Blachier, Martin

Blasco, Antonio J.

Mello, Carlos E. Brandao ^{[46
]}

Bruggmann, Philip ^{[47
]}

Brunton, Cheryl R. ^{[48
]}

Calinas, Filipe ^{[49
]}

Chan, Henry L. Y. ^{[50
]}

Chaudhry, Asad ^{[51
]}

Cheinquer, Hugo ^{[52
]}

Chen, Chien-Jen ^{[53
]}

Chien, Rong-Nan ^{[54
]}

Choi, Moon Seok ^{[55
]}

机构：

[1] Ctr Dis Anal, Lafayette, CO 80026 USA

[2] JW Goethe Univ Hosp, Dept Med, Frankfurt, Germany

[3] Hannover Med Sch, Dept Gastroenterol Hepatol & Endocrinol, Hannover, Germany

[4] King Abdul Aziz Med City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

[5] King Saud bin Abdulaziz Univ Hlth Sci, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

[6] Orebro Univ, Fac Med & Hlth, Dept Infect Dis, Orebro, Sweden

[7] Orebro Univ, Sch Hlth & Med Sci, Orebro, Sweden

[8] Eijkman Inst Mol Biol, Jakarta, Indonesia

[9] Univ Sydney, Dept Hepatitis & Emerging Infect Dis, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[10] Natl Liver Inst, Menoufia, Egypt

[11] Baqiatallah Univ Med Sci, Baqiatallah Res Ctr Gastroenterol & Liver Dis, Tehran, Iran

[12] Middle East Liver Dis Ctr, Tehran, Iran

[13] Natl Yang Ming Univ, Inst Clin Med, Taipei, Taiwan

[14] Univ Hosp, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Rue Gabrielle Perret Gentil 4, Geneva, Switzerland

[15] Univ Hosp, Div Clin Pathol, Rue Gabrielle Perret Gentil 4, Geneva, Switzerland

[16] Alfaisal Univ, King Faisal Specialist Hosp & Res Ctr, Dept Liver & Small Bowel Transplantat, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

[17] Dubai Hlth Author, Rashid Hosp, Dubai, U Arab Emirates

[18] Salmaniya Med Complex, Manama, Bahrain

[19] Minist Publ Hlth, Natl Hepatitis Program, Beirut, Lebanon

[20] Univ Helsinki, Cent Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, Helsinki, Finland

[21] Ege Univ, Gastroenterol, Izmir, Turkey

[22] Jordan Royal Med Serv, GI & Hepatol Dept, Amman, Jordan

[23] Hamad Med Corp, Dept Med, Div Gastroenterol, Doha, Qatar

[24] Minist Hlth, Royal Hosp, Muscat, Oman

[25] Armed Forces Hosp, Dept Med, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Muscat, Oman

[26] Minist Hlth, Hosp Sect, Dubai, U Arab Emirates

[27] Sultan Qaboos Univ Hosp, Dept Med, Div Gastroenterol, Muscat, Oman

[28] Dubai Hlth Author, Rashid Hosp, Infect Dis Unit, Dubai, U Arab Emirates

[29] Karolinska Inst, Dept Med Huddinge, Stockholm, Sweden

[30] Karolinska Univ Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol Infect Dis, Stockholm, Sweden

[31] King Fahad Hosp, Dept Med, Gastroenterol Unit, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

[32] Supreme Council Hlth, Dept Publ Hlth, Doha, Qatar

[33] Stellenbosch Univ, Fac Hlth Sci, Dept Pathol, Div Med Virol, Stellenbosch, South Africa

[34] Ctr Hosp Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg

[35] Luxembourg Inst Hlth, Esch Sur Alzette, Luxembourg

[36] Univ Helsinki, Cent Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol, Helsinki, Finland

[37] Minist Hlth, Dept Prevent Med, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

[38] Mongolian Natl Univ Med Sci, Dept Infect Dis, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

[39] Addis Ababa Univ, Coll Hlth Sci, Sch Med, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

[40] Sheba Med Ctr, Liver Dis Ctr, Tel Hashomer, Israel

[41] St James Hosp, Dublin, Ireland

[42] Trinity Coll Dublin, Dublin, Ireland

[43] Univ Rosario, Sch Med, Rosario, Santa Fe, Argentina

[44] Osped Cantonale, Dept Gastroenterol, Bellinzona, Switzerland

[45] Amer Univ Beirut, Med Ctr, Fac Med, Div Infect Dis, Beirut, Lebanon

[46] Fed Univ State Rio de Janeiro, Dept Gastroenterol, Rio De Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

[47] Arud Ctr Addict Med, Zurich, Switzerland

[48] Canterbury Dist Hlth Board, Christchurch, New Zealand

[49] Hosp Santo Antonio Capuchos, Ctr Hosp Lisboa Cent, Dept Gastroenterol, Lisbon, Portugal

[50] Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Med & Therapeut, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

来源：

LANCET GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY | 2017年 / 2卷 / 03期

关键词：

FUTURE DISEASE BURDEN; TODAYS TREATMENT PARADIGM; WORK PRODUCTIVITY; HCV INFECTION; EPIDEMIOLOGY; MORTALITY;

D O I：

10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9

中图分类号：

R57 [消化系及腹部疾病];

学科分类号：

摘要：

Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of-and expansion on-the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64-103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1.0% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8-1.1) in 2015, corresponding to 71.1 million (62.5-79.4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections.

引用

页码：161 / 176

页数：16

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