Future water availability for global food production: The potential of green water for increasing resilience to global change

被引：463

作者：

Rockstroem, Johan ^{[1
,2
]}

Falkenmark, Malin ^{[1
]}

Karlberg, Louise ^{[1
,2
]}

Hoff, Holger ^{[2
,3
]}

Rost, Stefanie ^{[3
]}

Gerten, Dieter ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

[2] Stockholm Environm Inst, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

[3] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

来源：

WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH | 2009年 / 45卷

关键词：

VEGETATION; AFRICA; DEMAND;

D O I：

10.1029/2007WR006767

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

While past strategies for agricultural water management have focused on irrigation (use of blue water), this paper demonstrates the dominance of green water in food production. A global, yet spatially disaggregated, green-blue analysis of water availability and requirement, using the LPJmL dynamic vegetation and water balance model, indicates that many countries currently assessed as severely water short are able to produce enough food for their populations if green water is considered and is managed well. The need to integrate green and blue water management is highlighted in a future scenario of water availability under climate change and population growth (HadCM2 A2). For 2050, the scenario indicates that 59% of the world population will face blue water shortage, and 36% will face green and blue water shortage. Even under climate change, good options to build water resilience exist without further expansion of cropland, particularly through management of local green water resources that reduces risks for dry spells and agricultural droughts.

引用

页数：16