Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Scandinavian hydropower production and energy markets

被引：51

作者：

Cherry, J ^{[1
]}

Cullen, H

Visbeck, M

Small, A

Uvo, C

机构：

[1] Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA

[2] Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA USA

[3] Georgia Inst Technol, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA

[4] Columbia Univ, Sch Int & Publ Affairs, New York, NY USA

[5] Lund Univ, Dept Water Resources Engn, S-22100 Lund, Sweden

来源：

WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT | 2005年 / 19卷 / 06期

关键词：

North Atlantic oscillation; social impacts; energy; hydropower; climate impacts;

D O I：

10.1007/s11269-005-3279-z

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

Dramatic swings in the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during the 1990s motivated the authors to build a statistical model of NAO impacts on hydropower production and energy markets in Scandinavia. Variation in the NAO index is shown to explain 55% of the variance of streamflow in Norway and up to 30% of the variance in Norway's hydropower output. It is also possible to identify the influence of NAO anomalies on electricity consumption and prices. Government liberalization allowed a financial market to grow around the international trading of electricity, which in Norway is produced almost entirely from hydropower. The model offers a possible tool for predicting the effects of future NAO movements on hydropower production and energy prices in Scandinavia. The potential influence of skillful climate prediction is discussed.

引用

页码：673 / 691

页数：19