Hydrometeorological analysis of northwestern Turkey with links to climate change

被引：30

作者：

Aksoy, Hafzullah ^{[2
]}

Unal, N. Erdem ^{[2
]}

Alexandrov, Vesselin ^{[3
]}

Dakova, Snejana ^{[3
]}

Yoon, Jaeyoung ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Korea Univ, Dept Environm Engn, Coll Sci & Technol, Jochiwon 339700, Chungnam, South Korea

[2] Istanbul Tech Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Hydraul Div, TR-34469 Istanbul, Turkey

[3] Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY | 2008年 / 28卷 / 08期

关键词：

climate variability; climate change scenarios; global circulation model; hydrological analysis; meteorological analysis; northwestern Turkey; PPCC test; trend analysis;

D O I：

10.1002/joc.1599

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Precipitation, air temperature, and streamflow data from the European part of Turkey are analysed by means of a set of tests available in the hydrometeorological literature. Structural characteristics such as randomness, jump, trend, and a best-fit probability distribution function are determined. Concluding remarks related to the structural charactecistics of hydrometeorological data state that no significant trend and jump exist in the time series, and the best-fit probability distribution function is the gamma for the streamflow data. Climate change scenarios based on ECHAM4 as well as HadCM2 and HadCM3 global circulation models are developed for the region, and projections are made for the 21st century. Projections made by climate change scenarios signal higher air temperature and lower precipitation in the 21st century and warn for severe extremes, higher maxima and lower minima, both in time and space. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society.

引用

页码：1047 / 1060

页数：14

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