Delivery point reliability indices of a bulk electric system using sequential Monte Carlo simulation

被引:37
作者
Billinton, R [1 ]
Wangdee, W [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Saskatchewan, Power Syst Res Grp, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A9, Canada
关键词
bulk electric systems; delivery point (DP) indices; reliability index probability distributions;
D O I
10.1109/TPWRD.2005.855445
中图分类号
TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];
学科分类号
0808 ; 0809 ;
摘要
A significant advantage when utilizing sequential Monte Carlo simulation in bulk electric system reliability analysis is the ability to provide reliability index probability distributions in addition to the expected values of their indices. Reliability index probability distributions provide a pictorial representation of the annual variability of these parameters around their mean values. Parameter distribution analysis and its potential utilization are relatively new concepts in composite power system reliability analysis and decision making. Computer software has been developed to produce reliability index probability distributions for the individual delivery points (DPs) in a bulk electric system. The results obtained using the sequential software show that the DP reliability index probability distributions have unique characteristics that are basically dependent on the system topology and the system operating philosophy. Operating policies such as load shedding procedures have a significant impact on the DP reliability indices and their associated distributions. The IEEE Reliability Test System is used to illustrate the concepts associated with the determination of DP and system indices and their associated probability distributions. The results obtained using two different load shedding policies are also presented and compared.
引用
收藏
页码:345 / 352
页数:8
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