Estimating the world's potentially available cropland using a bottom-up approach

被引:248
作者
Lambin, E. F. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Gibbs, H. K. [4 ,5 ]
Ferreira, L. [6 ]
Grau, R. [7 ]
Mayaux, P. [8 ]
Meyfroidt, P. [1 ,9 ]
Morton, D. C. [10 ]
Rudel, T. K. [11 ,12 ]
Gasparri, I. [7 ]
Munger, J. [4 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Catholic Univ Louvain, Georges Lemaitre Ctr Earth & Climate Res, Earth & Life Inst, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium
[2] Stanford Univ, Sch Earth Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
[3] Stanford Univ, Woods Inst, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
[4] Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53726 USA
[5] Univ Wisconsin, Nelson Inst Environm Studies, Madison, WI 53726 USA
[6] Univ Fed Goias, Image Proc & GIS Lab, BR-74001970 Goiania, Go, Brazil
[7] Univ Nacl Tucuman, CONICET, Inst Ecol Reg, RA-4107 Yerba Buena, Tucuman, Argentina
[8] Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy
[9] FRS FNRS, Brussels, Belgium
[10] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA
[11] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Human Ecol, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA
[12] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Sociol, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA
来源
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS | 2013年 / 23卷 / 05期
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Agro-ecological zone; Land reserve; Land use; Land change; Agriculture; Food security; Degraded lands; TROPICAL FORESTS; GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION; LAND AVAILABILITY; AGRICULTURAL LAND; TIME-SERIES; DRY FORESTS; DEFORESTATION; AMAZON; CONSERVATION; LANDSCAPES;
D O I
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.05.005
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Previous estimates of the land area available for future cropland expansion relied on global-scale climate, soil and terrain data. They did not include a range of constraints and tradeoffs associated with land conversion. As a result, estimates of the global land reserve have been high. Here we adjust these estimates for the aforementioned constraints and tradeoffs. We define potentially available cropland as the moderately to highly productive land that could be used in the coming years for rainfed farming, with low to moderate capital investments, and that is not under intact mature forests, legally protected, or already intensively managed. This productive land is underutilized rather than unused as it has ecological or social functions. We also define potentially available cropland that accounts for trade-offs between gains in agricultural production and losses in ecosystem and social services from intensified agriculture, to include only the potentially available cropland that would entail low ecological and social costs with conversion to cropland. In contrast to previous studies, we adopt a "bottom-up" approach by analyzing detailed, fine scale observations with expert knowledge for six countries or regions that are often assumed to include most of potentially available cropland. We conclude first that there is substantially less potential additional cropland than is generally assumed once constraints and trade offs are taken into account, and secondly that converting land is always associated with significant social and ecological costs. Future expansion of agricultural production will encounter a complex landscape of competing demands and tradeoffs. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:892 / 901
页数:10
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