Multivariate modelling of infectious disease surveillance data

被引:97
作者
Paul, M. [1 ]
Held, L. [1 ]
Toschke, A. M. [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Zurich, Inst Social & Prevent Med, Biostat Unit, CH-8001 Zurich, Switzerland
[2] Kings Coll London, Dept Publ Hlth Sci, Div Hlth & Social Care Res, London, England
基金
瑞士国家科学基金会;
关键词
infectious disease surveillance; multivariate time series of counts; space-time models;
D O I
10.1002/sim.3440
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
This paper describes a model-based approach to analyse multivariate time series data on Counts of infectious diseases. It extends a method previously described in the literature to deal with possible dependence between disease counts from different pathogens. In a spatio-temporal context it is proposed to include additional information on global dispersal of the pathogen in the model. Two examples are given: the first describes an analysis of weekly influenza and meningococcal disease Counts from Germany. The second gives an analysis of the spatio-temporal spread of influenza in the U.S.A., 1996-2006, using air traffic information. Maximum likelihood estimates in this non-standard model class are obtained using general optimization routines, which are integrated in the R package surveillance. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
引用
收藏
页码:6250 / 6267
页数:18
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