Childhood influences on youth obesity

We develop a model to estimate the influence of child and parental characteristics on the likelihood that a child will become an obese or overweight youth. We use this model to test whether it is possible to forecast obesity and overweight among youth. Comparing Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) scores from these forecasts, we find that a model using childhood covariates does as well in forecasting youth obesity and overweight as a model using the covariate values contemporaneous with the youth obesity and overweight outcomes. The datasets used in this paper, the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth(NLSY79) and the NLSY79 Children and Young Adults, provide data from 1986 to 2002, allowing for the study of a child's transition to and from obesity or overweight over a long period. Explanatory variables that significantly influence the likelihood of youth obesity or overweight outcomes include the mother's obesity status and education, the youth's mental health, and certain demographic features including race, sex, and family size. These factors provide potential targets for policies that could be implemented early in life among children most likely to become obese or overweight. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.