Anticipating Critical Transitions

被引：1501

作者：

Scheffer, Marten ^{[1
,2
]}

Carpenter, Stephen R. ^{[3
]}

Lenton, Timothy M. ^{[4
]}

Bascompte, Jordi ^{[5
]}

Brock, William ^{[6
]}

Dakos, Vasilis ^{[1
,5
]}

van de Koppel, Johan ^{[7
,8
]}

van de Leemput, Ingrid A. ^{[1
]}

Levin, Simon A. ^{[9
]}

van Nes, Egbert H. ^{[1
]}

Pascual, Mercedes ^{[10
,11
,12
]}

Vandermeer, John ^{[10
,11
]}

机构：

[1] Wageningen Univ, Dept Environm Sci, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands

[2] S Amer Inst Resilience & Sustainabil Studies SARA, Maldonado, Uruguay

[3] Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA

[4] Univ Exeter, Hatherly Labs, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter EX4 4PS, Devon, England

[5] CSIC, Estn Biol Donana, Integrat Ecol Grp, E-41092 Seville, Spain

[6] Univ Wisconsin, Dept Econ, Madison, WI 53706 USA

[7] Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res NIOZ, Spatial Ecol Dept, NL-4400 AC Yerseke, Netherlands

[8] Univ Groningen, Ctr Ecol & Evolutionary Studies CEES, Community & Conservat Ecol Grp, NL-9700 CC Groningen, Netherlands

[9] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[10] Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

[11] Howard Hughes Med Inst, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

[12] Santa Fe Inst, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2012年 / 338卷 / 6105期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会; 美国国家科学基金会; 欧洲研究理事会;

关键词：

CRITICAL SLOWING-DOWN; NONEQUILIBRIUM PHASE-TRANSITIONS; COORDINATED BIOLOGICAL MOTION; EARLY-WARNING SIGNALS; REGIME SHIFTS; TIPPING-POINT; RESILIENCE; STATES; TIME; BIODIVERSITY;

D O I：

10.1126/science.1225244

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line of work is revealing fundamental architectural features that may cause ecological networks, financial markets, and other complex systems to have tipping points. Another field of research is uncovering generic empirical indicators of the proximity to such critical thresholds. Although sudden shifts in complex systems will inevitably continue to surprise us, work at the crossroads of these emerging fields offers new approaches for anticipating critical transitions.

引用

页码：344 / 348

页数：5

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