Effects of load forecast uncertainty on bulk electric system reliability evaluation

被引：81

作者：

Billinton, Roy ^{[1
]}

Huang, Dange ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A9, Canada

来源：

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS | 2008年 / 23卷 / 02期

关键词：

bulk system reliability assessment; load forecast uncertainty; load point and system indices;

D O I：

10.1109/TPWRS.2008.920078

中图分类号：

TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];

学科分类号：

0808 ; 0809 ;

摘要：

Load forecast uncertainty is an important factor in long-range system planning and has been shown to have a significant impact on the calculated reliability indices in generating capacity studies. In general, a higher capacity reserve is required to satisfy a future uncertainty load than to serve a known load, at a specified level of reliability. Load forecast considerations are also important in composite generation and transmission system reliability studies, and their associated probability distributions. This paper examines the effects of load forecast uncertainty in bulk system reliability assessment incorporating changes in system composition, topology, load curtailment policies and bus load correlation levels.

引用

页码：418 / 425

页数：8

共 11 条

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