Future changes in snowmelt-driven runoff timing over the western US

被引：134

作者：

Rauscher, Sara A. ^{[1
]}

Pal, Jeremy S. ^{[2
]}

Diffenbaugh, Noah S. ^{[3
,4
]}

Benedetti, Michael M. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Earth Syst Phys Sect, I-34014 Trieste, Italy

[2] Loyola Marymount Univ, Dept Civil Engn & Environm Sci, Seaver Coll Sci & Engn, Los Angeles, CA 90045 USA

[3] Purdue Univ, Purdue Climate Change Res Ctr, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA

[4] Purdue Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA

[5] Univ N Carolina, Dept Geog & Geol, Wilmington, NC 28403 USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2008年 / 35卷 / 16期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1029/2008GL034424

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

We use a high-resolution nested climate model to investigate future changes in snowmelt-driven runoff (SDR) over the western US. Comparison of modeled and observed daily runoff data reveals that the regional model captures the present-day timing and trends of SDR. Results from an A2 scenario simulation indicate that increases in seasonal temperature of approximately 3 degrees to 5 degrees C resulting from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations could cause SDR to occur as much as two months earlier than present. These large changes result from an amplified snow-albedo feedback driven by the topographic complexity of the region, which is more accurately resolved in a high-resolution nested climate model. Earlier SDR could affect water storage in reservoirs and hydroelectric generation, with serious consequences for land use, agriculture, and water management in the American West.

引用

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