Future changes in snowmelt-driven runoff timing over the western US

被引：134

作者：

Rauscher, Sara A. ^{[1
]}

Pal, Jeremy S. ^{[2
]}

Diffenbaugh, Noah S. ^{[3
,4
]}

Benedetti, Michael M. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Earth Syst Phys Sect, I-34014 Trieste, Italy

[2] Loyola Marymount Univ, Dept Civil Engn & Environm Sci, Seaver Coll Sci & Engn, Los Angeles, CA 90045 USA

[3] Purdue Univ, Purdue Climate Change Res Ctr, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA

[4] Purdue Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA

[5] Univ N Carolina, Dept Geog & Geol, Wilmington, NC 28403 USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2008年 / 35卷 / 16期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1029/2008GL034424

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

We use a high-resolution nested climate model to investigate future changes in snowmelt-driven runoff (SDR) over the western US. Comparison of modeled and observed daily runoff data reveals that the regional model captures the present-day timing and trends of SDR. Results from an A2 scenario simulation indicate that increases in seasonal temperature of approximately 3 degrees to 5 degrees C resulting from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations could cause SDR to occur as much as two months earlier than present. These large changes result from an amplified snow-albedo feedback driven by the topographic complexity of the region, which is more accurately resolved in a high-resolution nested climate model. Earlier SDR could affect water storage in reservoirs and hydroelectric generation, with serious consequences for land use, agriculture, and water management in the American West.

引用

页数：5

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