Identification of naive HCV-1 patients with chronic hepatitis who may benefit from dual therapy with peg-interferon and ribavirin

Background & Aims: The pool of HCV genotype 1 patients likely to be cured by peg-interferon and ribavirin remains to be quantified. Methods: In 1045 patients treated with peg-interferon and ribavirin, two therapeutic strategies were confronted: the first one evaluated only baseline variables associated with sustained virological response (SVR), and the second one included the rapid virologic response (RVR) in addition to baseline predictors. An 80% SVR rate was the threshold to retain a strategy as clinically relevant. Results: Overall, 414 patients (39.6%) attained SVR. In the first strategy, the hierarchy of features independently associated with SVR was IL28B CC genotype (OR 5.082; CI 3.637-7.101), low (< 400,000 IU) viremia (OR 2.907; CI 2.111-4.004), F0-F2 fibrosis (OR 1.631; CI 1.122-2.372) and type 2 diabetes (OR 0.528; CI 0.286-0.972). In the alternative strategy, SVR was associated with RVR (OR 6.273; CI 4.274-9.208), IL28B CC genotype (OR 3.306; CI 2.301-4.751), low viremia (OR 2.175; CI 1.542-3.070), and F0-F2 fibrosis (OR 1.506; CI 1.012-2.242). Combining the favorable baseline variables, the rates of SVR ranged from 42.4% to 83.3%, but only 66 patients (6.3%, overall) with all predictors could be anticipated to reach the > 80% SVR threshold. Only 26.6% of no-RVR patients attained SVR. Among the 255 RVR patients, the likelihood of SVR was 61.8% in those with unfavorable predictors, 80% in the presence of a single predictor, and 100% when both predictors were present. By using this model, 200 patients (19.1%) were predicted to have an 80% chance of being cured with dual therapy. Conclusions: A consistent subset of naive HCV-1 patients, identified by some baseline characteristics and RVR, may benefit from dual treatment with peg-interferon and ribavirin. (C) 2013 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.