Early warnings of regime shifts in spatial dynamics using the discrete Fourier transform

被引：51

作者：

Carpenter, S. R. ^{[1
]}

Brock, W. A. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA

[2] Univ Wisconsin, Dept Econ, Madison, WI 53706 USA

来源：

ECOSPHERE | 2010年 / 1卷 / 05期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

critical transition; discrete Fourier transform; early warning; regime shift; spatial dynamics; variance; ECOLOGICAL-SYSTEMS; LEADING INDICATOR;

D O I：

10.1890/ES10-00016.1

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

In ecosystems with spatial dispersion of nutrients, organic matter, or organisms, dispersal may dampen variability that could provide an early warning of regime shifts. The discrete Fourier transform (DFT) of spatial pattern rescales system dynamics into spatial frequencies where early warnings may be sharpened. We analyzed four spatial ecological models with the DFT. Different models represented single species in discrete and continuous time, and two different prey-harvester systems. In all four systems, the DFT of transient data exhibited substantial increases prior to the critical transitions. The DFT adds to the arsenal of early warning indicators for spatially structured ecosystems. In addition it provides information about the spatial frequencies where destabilization first begins.

引用

页数：15