Assessing consistency between EOS MLS and ECMWF analyzed and forecast estimates of cloud ice

Cloud ice water content (IWC) from MLS retrievals and ECMWF analyses and forecasts are compared for August 2004 to July 2005. ECMWF data are sampled along MLS tracks and filtered according to MLS sensitivity. At 147 hPa, there is good spatial agreement with the analyses biased high by 10%. Over landmasses, the analyses are biased low up to 50%. This underestimation grows in the forecasts, with a 40% reduction by day 10. At 215 hPa, the analyses are biased low by 10 - 60%. However, at this level the forecast IWC undergoes little change. These biases, in conjunction with those in precipitation and top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes, along with consideration of the changes in vertical velocity, cumulus cloud mass flux and cloud top detrainment, indicates a systematic reduction of the modeled deep convection over the warm pool in conjunction with a weakened large-scale circulation and enhanced upper-level vertical stratification.