Chronic Kidney Disease After Liver Transplantation: Pretransplantation Risk Factors and Predictors During Follow-Up

Background. Chronic renal impairment is an emerging problem in the management of patients after liver transplantation (LT). Methods. We prospectively analyzed predictors of chronic kidney disease (CKD) after LT in 179 patients followed for a median of 63 months. Diagnosis of CKD was based on an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of less than 60 mL/min according to the current position statement from the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcome. Pretransplantation risk factors were evaluated. A Cox regression analysis, with time-dependent variables evaluated during follow-up, was applied to realize a prognostic model for CKD, and a prognostic index was also calculated. The validity of the model was tested in 149 independent LT patients with a median follow-up of 46 months. Results. The cumulative incidence of CKD was 45% at 5 years after LT. Estimated GFR at LT was the only pretransplantation independent risk factor (beta, 0.33; standard error (beta), 0.07; 95% confidence interval, 0.95-0.98). Development of arterial hypertension (hazards ratio [HR], 1.83), episodes of severe infection (HR, 2.15), and estimated GFR (HR, 0.89) after LT were identified as independent prognostic factors at the Cox regression timedependent analysis. The model was able to identify the patients at higher risk for the development of CKD in the validation set. Conclusions. Lower renal function at transplantation is associated with a higher risk of CKD after transplantation. A predictive model based on the variation of posttransplantation variables during the course of follow-up can help the clinicians to estimate the probability of CKD in the next 12 months.