Analytic estimates for the forces and free energy generated by bilayer deformation reveal a compelling and intuitive model for MscL channel gating analogous to the nucleation of a second phase. We argue that the competition between hydrophobic mismatch and tension results in a surprisingly rich story that can provide both a quantitative comparison with measurements of opening tension for MscL when reconstituted in bilayers of different thickness, and qualitative insights into the function of the MscL channel and other transmembrane proteins.