MODELING HABITAT SELECTION OF THE RED-FOOTED FALCON (FALCO VESPERTINUS): A POSSIBLE EXPLANATION OF RECENT CHANGES IN BREEDING RANGE WITHIN HUNGARY

Due to a severe population decline and shrinkage of distribution range in the past decades, the red-footed falcon has gained top priority in both worldwide and Hungarian nature conservation. As a facultative colonial breeder, in Hungary, this species predominantly nests in rookeries. The number of rooks (Corvus frugilegus) has also dramatically fallen recently, but population decline did not affect the large scale breeding distribution of this species. In our study we analyzed the presence of red-footed falcons at a colony in the case of current and historical breeding ranges based on landscape scaled habitat variables. We used a potential colony home-range size, estimated from observed home-range sizes in order to determine the scale of influential habitat variables. According to our results, the primary cause of the observed range shift is the urbanization of rooks in definable regions of Hungary. The ratio of forests and open water surfaces within the potential home-range had negative, while the ratio of grasslands had a positive effect on the probability of red-footed falcon presence. None of our models predicted red-footed falcon presence at colonies outside the current breeding range, suggesting that a probable increase in red-footed falcon population numbers will not be accompanied by the expansion of the current breeding range.