A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures

It is widely recognised that soil slips and debris flows are triggered by short intense storms. Owing its geologic, geomorphologic and climatic settings, the Piedmont Region (NW Italy) is highly prone to the occurrence of this kind of landslides. In the last two centuries, in fact, a total of 105 severe meteoric events which triggered shallow failures occurred and, of these, 18 events took place from 1990 to 2002. A fair number of rainfall thresholds have been proposed in the literature, defined both on empirical or on physical bases. Empirical thresholds are defined collecting rainfall data for landslide meteoric events and for events without landslides, while physical thresholds are based on numerical models that consider the relation between rainfall, pore pressure and slope stability. The main objective of this paper is the identification of the empirical triggering thresholds for the Piedmont Region. Four meteoric events were selected and analysed (November 4-5, 1994; July 7-8, 1996; April 27-30, 2000; October 13-16, 2000) because they supply a wide range of variation for both rainfall parameters (duration, intensity, cumulative rainfalls) and the number of induced landslides. In the intensity-duration plot, the critical limit is described by the equation: I = 19D(-0.50) (where I = rainfall intensity expressed in mm/h and D = rainfall duration expressed in hours). Such a limit is traced to envelop 90% of the points on the graph. In the NI-D diagram the triggering thresholds are given by the equations NI = 0.76D(-0.33) and NI = 4.62D(-0.79) (where NI = normalised intensity with respect to the annual precipitation, MAP, expressed in %, [(mm/h)/PMA] X 100). In the article the different meaning of these thresholds is discussed. Finally, the diagram NI-NCR is proposed; the triggering threshold is given by the expression: NI = -0.09ln[NCR] + 0.54 (where NCR is the normalised cumulative critical rainfall, [mm/PMA] x 100). The application of the triggering thresholds as a fundamental element in a warning system dedicated to the safeguarding of population in landslide-prone areas is discussed. In detail an operating procedure which is presently being verified and tested in the studied area is described. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.