Risk Preferences Are Not Time Preferences

被引：231

作者：

Andreoni, James ^{[1
]}

Sprenger, Charles ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Econ, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA

[2] Stanford Univ, Dept Econ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

来源：

AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW | 2012年 / 102卷 / 07期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

INTERTEMPORAL CHOICE; DYNAMIC CONSISTENCY; PROSPECT-THEORY; UTILITY; UNCERTAINTY; CERTAINTY; DISAPPOINTMENT; RESOLUTION; IMMEDIACY; ANOMALIES;

D O I：

10.1257/aer.102.7.3357

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Risk and time are intertwined. The present is known while the future is inherently risky. This is problematic when studying time preferences since uncontrolled risk can generate apparently present-biased behavior. We systematically manipulate risk in an intertemporal choice experiment. Discounted expected utility performs well with risk, but when certainty is added common ratio predictions fail sharply. The data cannot be explained by prospect theory, hyperbolic discounting, or preferences for resolution of uncertainty, but seem consistent with a direct preference for certainty. The data suggest strongly a difference between risk and time preferences.

引用

页码：3357 / 3376

页数：20

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