Childhood predictors of offense trajectories

被引：117

作者：

Chung, IJ

Hill, KG

Hawkins, JD

Gilchrist, LD

Nagin, DS

机构：

[1] Univ Washington, Social Dev Res Grp, Seattle, WA 98115 USA

[2] Univ Washington, Sch Social Work, Seattle, WA 98115 USA

[3] Seattle Social Dev Project, Seattle, WA USA

[4] Natl Inst Drug Abuse, NIDA, Seattle, WA USA

[5] NIH, Prevent Res Ctr, Bethesda, MD USA

[6] Carnegie Mellon Univ, H John Heinz III Sch Publ Policy & Management, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN CRIME AND DELINQUENCY | 2002年 / 39卷 / 01期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1177/002242780203900103

中图分类号：

DF [法律]; D9 [法律];

学科分类号：

0301 ;

摘要：

Previous research has shown heterogeneity in offense trajectories. Using data from the Seattle Social Development Project, a longitudinal study of 808 youths followed since 1985, this study seeks to identify childhood predictors of different offense trajectories. Five offense trajectories were identified using semiparametric, group-based modeling: nonoffenders, late onsetters, desisters, escalators, and chronic offenders. Multinomial logistic regressions were then employed to examine childhood predictors measured at ages 10 to 12 that distinguish these five groups. Results indicated that among initial nonoffenders at age 13, late onsetters were distinguished from nonoffenders by individual factors. Among youth already delinquent at age 13, escalators were distinguished from desisters by peer school, and neighborhood factors.

引用

页码：60 / 90

页数：31