Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the central and western United States: The roles of soil moisture and sea surface temperature

被引:67
作者
Alfaro, EJ
Gershunov, A
Cayan, D
机构
[1] Univ Costa Rica, Escuela Fis, San Jose, Costa Rica
[2] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, Div Climate Res, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA
[3] US Geol Survey, La Jolla, CA USA
关键词
D O I
10.1175/JCLI3665.1
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
A statistical model based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to explore climatic associations and predictability of June-August (JJA) maximum and minimum surface air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as the frequency of Tmax daily extremes (Tmax90) in the central and western United States (west of 90 degrees W). Explanatory variables are monthly and seasonal Pacific Ocean SST (PSST) and the Climate Division Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during 1950-2001. Although there is a positive correlation between Tmax and Tmin, the two variables exhibit somewhat different patterns and dynamics. Both exhibit their lowest levels of variability in summer, but that of Tmax is greater than Tmin. The predictability of Tmax is mainly associated with local effects related to previous soil moisture conditions at short range (one month to one season), with PSST providing a secondary influence. Predictability of Tmin is more strongly influenced by large-scale (PSST) patterns, with PDSI acting as a short-range predictive influence. For both predictand variables (Tmax and Tmin), the PDSI influence falls off markedly at time leads beyond a few months, but a PSST influence remains for at least two seasons. The maximum predictive skill for JJA Tmin, Tmax, and Tmax90 is from May PSST and PDSI. Importantly. skills evaluated for various seasons and time leads undergo a seasonal cycle that has maximum levels in summer. At the seasonal time frame, summer Tmax prediction skills are greatest in the Midwest, northern and central California, Arizona, and Utah. Similar results were found for Tmax90. In contrast, Tmin skill is spread over most of the western region, except for clusters of low skill in the northern Midwest and southern Montana, Idaho, and northern Arizona.
引用
收藏
页码:1407 / 1421
页数:15
相关论文
共 59 条
  • [1] ALLEY WM, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1100, DOI 10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<1100:TPDSIL>2.0.CO
  • [2] 2
  • [3] BARNETT TP, 1981, MON WEATHER REV, V109, P1021, DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<1021:SPONAA>2.0.CO
  • [4] 2
  • [5] BARNETT TP, 1987, MON WEATHER REV, V115, P1825, DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1825:OALOMA>2.0.CO
  • [6] 2
  • [7] Barnston AG, 1996, J CLIMATE, V9, P2660, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2660:SAPOGS>2.0.CO
  • [8] 2
  • [9] A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming
    Dai, A
    Trenberth, KE
    Qian, TT
    [J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY, 2004, 5 (06) : 1117 - 1130
  • [10] DELWORTH T, 1989, J CLIMATE, V2, P1447, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<1447:TIOSWO>2.0.CO