The Main objective of the study is to understand and quantify the hydrological responses of land use and land cover changes. The Yangtze River Delta is one of the most developed regions in China with the rapid development of urbanization which serves as an excellent case study site for understanding the hydrological response to urbanization and land use change. The Xitiaoxi River basin, one of the main upstream rivers to the Taihu Lake in the Yangtze River Delta, was selected to perform the study. The urban area in the basin increased from 37.8 km(2) in 1985 to 105 km(2) in 2008. SWAT model, which makes direct use of land cover and land use data in simulating streamflow, provides as a useful tool for performing such studies and is therefore used in this study. The results showed that (1) the expansion of urban areas had a slight influence on the simulated annual streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET) as far as the whole catchment is concerned; (2) surface runoff and baseflow were found more sensitive to urbanization, which had increased by 11.3% and declined by 11.2%, respectively; (3) changes in streamflow, evapotranspiration and surface runoff were more pronounced during the wet season (from May to August), while baseflow and lateral flow had a slight seasonal variation; (4) the model simulated peak discharge increased 1.6-4.3% and flood volume increased 0.7-2.3% for the selected storm rainfall events at the entire basin level, and the change rate was larger for smaller flood events than for larger events; (5) spatially, changes of hydrological fluxes were more remarkable in the suburban basin which had a relative larger increase in urbanization than in rural sub-basins; and (6) analysis of future scenarios showed the impacts of urbanization on hydrological fluxes would be more obvious with growth in impervious areas from 15% to 30%. In conclusion, the urbanization would have a slight impact on annual water yield, but a remarkable impact was found on surface runoff, peak discharge and flood volume especially in suburban basins in the study area. The study suggested that more attention must be paid for flood mitigation and water resources management in planning future urban development in the region. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
