Changes in gross moist stability in the tropics under global warming

Gross moist stability, an effective static stability, in the tropics is examined in observations and model simulations. Under convective quasi-equilibrium closure, gross moist stability, a vertical integration of the vertical moist static energy gradient weighted by pressure velocity, is derived based on an approximately moist adiabatic process associated with deep convection. In climatology, gross moist stability is generally similar to the spatial distribution of mean precipitation. In global warming simulations, gross moist stability tends to increase in the tropics. It implies a more stable atmosphere, which is consistent with the weakening of tropical circulation found in climate models. Main effects, which induce the changes in gross moist stability, include the low-level moisture effect, the maximum level of convection (MLC) effect, i.e., the depth of deep convection, and the dry static energy effect associated with stratification of temperature, with the first two also found in climatology. Because of the strong cancellation between the effects of low-level moisture and dry static energy due to the moist adiabatic process of deep convection, the effect of MLC, which has been overlooked in measuring atmospheric stability, is crucial in determining the sign of changes in gross moist stability. Gross moist stability is a better index to represent changes in atmospheric stability in the tropics under global warming, compared to both dry and moist static stability.