A model-based map of ground temperatures for the permafrost regions of Canada

A functional model of the permafrost-climate system is applied at national scale, to produce a map of near-surface ground temperatures in the permafrost regions of Canada. The TTOP model links the temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) to the climate through seasonal surface transfer functions and subsurface thermal properties. The parameters in the model were compiled at national scale for Canada, although the topographic effects of the Western Cordillera were not incorporated into the analysis. The objective of the study was accomplished by implementing the TTOP model within a Geographical Information System. The TTOP map is evaluated against the published Ground Temperature Map of Canada. The published map shows ground temperatures according to a scale of temperature classes, so TTOP values were categorized into the same classes. Across the permafrost regions of Canada, 72.1% of the area is in the same class in both maps, while 27.7% differs by one temperature class. Only 0.2% of the area differs by two temperature classes. The results suggest that the TTOP model can provide a rational and functional basis for relating near-surface permafrost temperature and climate at national and regional scales. The model could be applied to the assessment of climate change impacts on the magnitude and distribution of permafrost temperatures. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.