The effects of climatic change and CO2 fertilisation on agriculture in Quebec

The agricultural sector forms an important part of the economy of Quebec. The risk of global increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration and associated climatic change and their influence on agriculture need to be assessed. Although many studies have been conducted on the effect of climate change on agriculture in various parts of the world, fewer studies have focused on the combined effects of climatic change and CO2 fertilisation on agriculture. This study, using the outputs of the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) general circulation model coupled with the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAG) crop model, attempts to assess the response of agricultural productivity to both direct (or fertilisation) and indirect (or climatic) effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, for a variety of crops including C-3 and C-4 cereals, legumes, vegetables and special crops grown in Quebec. It appears that C-4 cereal (corn and sorghum) crops would benefit by climate change but would be least favoured by CO2 fertilisation effect. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.