Analysing the costs and benefits of climate policy: Value judgements and scientific uncertainties

被引：41

作者：

Hof, Andries F. ^{[1
]}

den Elzen, Michel G. J. ^{[1
]}

van Vuuren, Detlef P. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy MNP, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands

来源：

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS | 2008年 / 18卷 / 03期

关键词：

Climate change; Cost-benefit analysis; Emissions; Uncertainty; Climate policy;

D O I：

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.04.004

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change compares costs and benefits of stringent climate policy and concludes that the benefits of stringent policy considerably outweigh the costs. Many other cost-benefit analyses have come up with less ambitious optimal emission reductions. In this study, we systematically explore the impacts of scientific uncertainties and value judgements on the suggested "optimal target" for international climate policy. In this context, we have varied the most important parameters using a range of values from several widely used Integrated Assessment Modes in one consistent framework. Our analysis shows that uncertainties about abatement and damage costs play an almost equally important role as the discount rate. Both stringent and moderate climate policy can be justified by using other parameter settings. Furthermore, for most parameter settings there is a wide range of concentration levels close to the optimal target, providing a much wider range for political choices than often suggested. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：412 / 424

页数：13