PHENIPS -: A comprehensive phenology model of Ips typographus (L.) (Col., Scolytinae) as a tool for hazard rating of bark beetle infestation

We developed the model PHENIPS for spatial and temporal simulation of the seasonal development of Ips typographus at the Kalkalpen National Park in Austria. The model is based on a digital elevation model used for interpolation of temperature and solar radiation to calculate the microclimatic conditions (bark temperature) for the beetles' development. Additionally, the beetles' phenology at Kalkalpen National Park was monitored along with air and bark temperature measurements. The onset of host tree infestation in spring was estimated using a lower threshold of 16.5 degrees C for flight activity and a mean thermal sum of 140 degree-days (dd) from beginning of April 1st onward. Rate of brood development was calculated from accumulated degree-days of hourly temperature data using upper and lower temperature thresholds of 38.9 and 8.3 degrees C, respectively, and a nonlinear function for calculating effective thermal sums. Re-emergence of parental beetles occurred at a time when 49.7% of the thermal sum for total development (557 dd) was reached. The model includes the discontinuance of the beetle's reproductive activity at a day length < 14.5 h. The rate of successful hibernation of established broods is predicted by assessing the developmental stage of initiated generations at the beginning of the cold period. For validation we compared the timing of phenological events in the field with predicted events using both, hourly recorded data at trap trees in the terrain and generated daily topoclimatic data. Using topoclimatic data, the onset of infestation was predicted with a mean absolute error of 1.3 days. The observed onset of emergence of filial beetles in the field was estimated with a mean error of 39 dd. Our PHENIPS explicitly considers the strong effects of regional topography and stand conditions on local air and bark temperature and can be used for precise monitoring of the actual state of bark beetle development at the specific stand/tree level. Using topoclimatic data, PHENIPS simulates the maximum number of generations which is necessary to assess the potential impact of bark beetle outbreaks at regional scale. Further applications of PHENIPS for site-specific hazard rating of bark beetle infestation are discussed. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.