Development of systems reliability analysis code SECOM-2 for seismic PSA

An integrated code system SECOM-2, developed at the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI), has the following functions for systems reliability analysis in seismic probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs): (1) calculation of component failure probability, (2) extraction of minimal cut sets (MCSs) from a given fault tree (FT), (3) calculation of frequencies of accident sequences and core damage, (4) importance analysis with several measures with consideration of unique parameters of seismic PSAs, (5) sensitivity analysis, and (6) uncertainty analysis. This paper summarizes the special features of SECOM-2 to perform the analyses mentioned above. At JAERI, using an integrated FT which represents seismically induced core damage due to all initiating events as a system model to calculate core damage frequency of a nuclear power plant, SECOM-2 can calculate conditional point estimate probabilities of system failures, losses of safety functions, and core damage as a function of earthquake motions. The point estimate is computed by a method which gives an exact numerical solution using the Boolean arithmetic model method. As for consideration of correlation of component failure, which has been an important issue in seismic PSAs, a new technique based on direct FT quantification by a Monte Carlo simulation is being added to SECOM-2. Adding this technique, the core damage frequency can be calculated not only with the upper bound approximation based on MCSs but also with a near exact solution taking into account the correlation among all components. This paper also presents the preliminary results of a seismic PSA of a generic BWR plant in Japan performed at JAERI to demonstrate the functions of the SECOM-2 code. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.