Municipal scale scenario: Analysis of an Italian seaside town with MarkAL-TIMES

This work presents three 25-year energy scenarios developed with the TIMES model generator for Pesaro, a seaside municipality in central Italy. It evaluates the effectiveness of local-scale energy policies in three sectors: households, transport, and the public sector (PS). Since the local energy demand is affected by summer tourism, seasonal consumption by holiday homes was also studied. Three scenarios were hypothesized: Business as Usual (BAU), Exemplary Public Sector (EPS), and Exemplary Municipality (EM). The EPS scenario models the exemplary role that recent European directives attribute to the PS in setting energy efficiency and technology penetration targets for itself; the EM scenario extends these targets to the household sector. In particular, the study underscores the potential of micro-cogeneration technologies in achieving local environmental targets, even though their diffusion would involve an increase in local energy consumption due to internalization of the primary energy used to produce electricity, which would no longer be wholly imported from outside municipal boundaries. The study provides information to local decision-makers by estimating the cost of implementing a number of energy policies. Finally, the study discusses the adequacy of TIMES as a tool to analyse municipal-scale scenarios. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.