The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

被引：74

作者：

Fujimori, S. ^{[1
]}

Kainuma, M. ^{[1
]}

Masui, T. ^{[1
]}

Hasegawa, T. ^{[1
]}

Dai, H. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan

来源：

ENERGY POLICY | 2014年 / 75卷

关键词：

Energy service demand; Computable general equilibrium model; Climate mitigation target; EMISSIONS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.enpol.2014.09.015

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (A1M/CGE) model for the period 2015-2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：379 / 391

页数：13

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