A System Dynamics Model for Predicting Supply and Demand of Medical Education Talents in China

The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between the demand for medical talents in China and the supply of talents in medical colleges and universities. Predicting the future development of medical talents is of great significance to the establishment of medical education and the cultivation of medical talents. Based on data from China Statistical Yearbook and OECD 34 countries from 2010 to 2014, as well as some research results on overseas and domestic scholars, a system dynamics prediction model relating the supply and demand of medical education talents is developed in this paper. Actual data for the Jiangsu Province is used to demonstrate the correctness, validity and applicability of the model. Simulation results show that, under the current conditions and political environment and to maintain the current average levels of OECD 34 countries, the projected number of demand for doctors in Jiangsu in 2024 is a little more than 319,800. Based on current data, there is still quite a large gap between these indexes in China and the desired target levels. Consequently, the system and structure of medical education need to be adjusted, with the corresponding policies and management system simultaneously reformed and medical environment improved.