Climate change:: long-term targets and short-term commitments

被引:30
作者
Corfee-Morlot, J
Höhne, N
机构
[1] ECOFYS Energy & Environm, D-50933 Cologne, Germany
[2] OECD Environm Directorate, F-75775 Paris 16, France
来源
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS | 2003年 / 13卷 / 04期
关键词
climate change; climate change impacts; greenhouse gas targets; Kyoto Protocol; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; UNFCCC;
D O I
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.09.001
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
International negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change could take several different approaches to advance future mitigation commitments. Options range from trying to reach consensus on specific long-term atmospheric concentration targets (e.g. 550 ppmv) to simply ignoring this contentious issue and focusing instead on what can be done in the nearer term. This paper argues for a strategy that lies between these two extremes. Internationally agreed threshold levels for certain categories of impacts or of risks posed by climate change could be translated into acceptable levels of atmospheric concentrations. This could help to establish a range of upper limits for global emissions in the medium term that could set the ambition level for negotiations on expanded GHG mitigation commitments. The paper thus considers how physical and socio-economic indicators of climate change impacts might be used to guide the setting of such targets. In an effort to explore the feasibility and implications of low levels of stabilisation, it also quantifies an intermediate global emission target for 2020 that keeps open the option to stabilise at 450 ppmv CO2 = If new efforts to reduce emissions are not forthcoming (e.g. the Kyoto Protocol or similar mitigation efforts fail), there is a significant chance that the option of 450 ppmv CO2 is out of reach as of 2020. Regardless of the preferred approach to shaping new international commitments on climate change, progress will require improved information on the avoided impacts climate change at different levels of mitigation and careful assessment of mitigation costs. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:277 / 293
页数:17
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