What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality?

被引：289

作者：

Barnett, A. G. ^{[1
]}

Tong, S. ^{[1
]}

Clements, A. C. A. ^{[2
,3
]}

机构：

[1] Queensland Univ Technol, Inst Hlth & Biomed Innovat, Sch Publ Hlth, Kelvin Grove, Australia

[2] Univ Queensland, Sch Populat Hlth, Herston, Qld, Australia

[3] Queensland Inst Med Res, Australian Ctr Trop & Int Hlth, Herston, Qld 4006, Australia

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH | 2010年 / 110卷 / 06期

基金：

英国医学研究理事会;

关键词：

Climate; Mortality; Weather; Temperature; Apparent temperature; Humidex; PARTICULATE AIR-POLLUTION; 15 EUROPEAN CITIES; UNITED-STATES; COLD REGIONS; HEAT-WAVE; US CITIES; WEATHER; ASSOCIATION; EXPOSURE; MODELS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.envres.2010.05.006

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Hot and cold temperatures significantly increase mortality rates around the world, but which measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality is not known. We used mortality data from 107 US cities for the years 1987-2000 and examined the association between temperature and mortality using Poisson regression and modelled a non-linear temperature effect and a non-linear lag structure. We examined mean, minimum and maximum temperature with and without humidity, and apparent temperature and the Humidex. The best measure was defined as that with the minimum cross-validated residual. We found large differences in the best temperature measure between age groups, seasons and cities, and there was no one temperature measure that was superior to the others. The strong correlation between different measures of temperature means that, on average, they have the same predictive ability. The best temperature measure for new studies can be chosen based on practical concerns, such as choosing the measure with the least amount of missing data. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：604 / 611

页数：8