A probabilistic framework to evaluate the uncertainty of design hydrograph: case study of Swannanoa River watershed

被引:11
作者
Ahmadisharaf, Ebrahim [1 ]
Kalyanapu, Alfred J. [2 ]
Lillywhite, Jason R. [3 ]
Tonn, Gina L. [4 ]
机构
[1] Virginia Tech, Dept Biol Syst Engn, 155 Ag Quad Lane,400 Seitz Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA
[2] Tennessee Technol Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Cookeville, TN 38505 USA
[3] Issaquah, GoldSim Technol Grp, Washington, DC USA
[4] Univ Penn, Wharton Risk Management & Decis Processes Ctr, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA
来源
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES | 2018年 / 63卷 / 12期
关键词
design hydrograph; event-based hydrological modeling; design rainfall; antecedent moisture condition; uncertainty analysis; FLOOD FREQUENCY CURVES; MODEL CALIBRATION; MIXED PROCEDURE; RETURN PERIODS; RAINFALL; RUNOFF; SIMULATION; CATCHMENTS; PARAMETER; HAZARD;
D O I
10.1080/02626667.2018.1525616
中图分类号
TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];
学科分类号
081501 ;
摘要
This study presents a probabilistic framework to evaluate the impact of uncertainty of design rainfall depth and temporal pattern as well as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) on design hydrograph attributes - peak, time to peak, duration and volume, as well as falling and rising limb slopes - using an event-based hydrological model in the Swannanoa River watershed in North Carolina, USA. Of the six hydrograph attributes, falling limb slope is the most sensitive to the aforementioned uncertainties, while duration is the least sensitive. In general, the uncertainty of hydrograph attributes decreases in higher recurrence intervals. Our multivariate analysis revealed that in most of the return periods, AMC is the most important driver for peak, duration and volume, while time to peak and falling limb slope are most influenced by rainfall pattern. In higher return periods, the importance of rainfall depth and pattern increases, while the importance of AMC decreases.
引用
收藏
页码:1776 / 1790
页数:15
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