Intra-hour forecasting with a total sky imager at the UC San Diego solar energy testbed

被引：422

作者：

Chow, Chi Wai ^{[1
]}

Urquhart, Bryan ^{[1
]}

Lave, Matthew ^{[1
]}

Dominguez, Anthony ^{[1
]}

Kleissl, Jan ^{[1
]}

Shields, Janet ^{[2
]}

Washom, Byron ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Mech & Aerosp Engn, San Diego, CA 92103 USA

[2] Univ Calif San Diego, Marine Phys Lab, Scripps Inst Oceanog, San Diego, CA 92103 USA

[3] Univ Calif San Diego, Strateg Energy Initiat, San Diego, CA 92103 USA

来源：

SOLAR ENERGY | 2011年 / 85卷 / 11期

关键词：

Sky imager; Red blue ratio; Cloud forecast; Intra-hour forecast; Solar irradiance; CLOUD COVER; RADIATION; IRRADIANCES; VALIDATION; BRAZIL;

D O I：

10.1016/j.solener.2011.08.025

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

A method for intra-hour, sub-kilometer cloud forecasting and irradiance nowcasting using a ground-based sky imager at the University of California, San Diego is presented. Sky images taken every 30 s were processed to determine sky cover using a clear sky library and sunshine parameter. From a two-dimensional cloud map generated from coordinate-transformed sky cover, cloud shadows at the surface were estimated. Limited validation on four partly cloudy days showed that (binary) cloud conditions were correctly nowcast 70% of the time for a network of six pyranometer ground stations spread out over an area of 2 km(2). Cloud motion vectors were generated by cross-correlating two consecutive sky images. Cloud locations up to 5 min ahead were forecasted by advection of the two-dimensional cloud map. Cloud forecast error increased with increasing forecast horizon due to high cloud cover variability over the coastal site. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：2881 / 2893

页数：13

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