Heat stress increase under climate change twice as large in cities as in rural areas: A study for a densely populated midlatitude maritime region

被引:143
作者
Wouters, Hendrik [1 ,2 ]
De Ridder, Koen [3 ]
Poelmans, Lien [3 ]
Willems, Patrick [4 ]
Brouwers, Johan [5 ]
Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa [4 ]
Tabari, Hossein [4 ]
Vanden Broucke, Sam [1 ]
van Lipzig, Nicole P. M. [1 ]
Demuzere, Matthias [1 ]
机构
[1] Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Heverlee, Belgium
[2] Univ Ghent, Lab Hydrol & Water Management, Ghent, Belgium
[3] Flemish Inst Technol Res, Environm Modelling Unit, Mol, Belgium
[4] Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Civil Engn, Heverlee, Belgium
[5] Flanders Environm Agcy, Aalst, Belgium
关键词
EXTREME TEMPERATURES; THERMAL COMFORT; EURO-CORDEX; URBAN; IMPACT; MODEL; MORTALITY; SUMMER; ISLAND; WAVES;
D O I
10.1002/2017GL074889
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Urban areas are usually warmer than their surrounding natural areas, an effect known as the urban heat island effect. As such, they are particularly vulnerable to global warming and associated increases in extreme temperatures. Yet ensemble climate-model projections are generally performed on a scale that is too coarse to represent the evolution of temperatures in cities. Here, for the first time, we combine unprecedented long-term (35years) urban climate model integrations at the convection-permitting scale (2.8km resolution) with information from an ensemble of general circulation models to assess temperature-based heat stress for Belgium, a densely populated midlatitude maritime region. We discover that the heat stress increase toward the mid-21st century is twice as large in cities compared to their surrounding rural areas. The exacerbation is driven by the urban heat island itself, its concurrence with heat waves, and urban expansion. Cities experience a heat stress multiplication by a factor 1.4 and 15 depending on the scenario. Remarkably, the future heat stress surpasses everywhere the urban hot spots of today. Our results demonstrate the need to combine information from climate models, acting on different scales, for climate change risk assessment in heterogeneous regions. Moreover, these results highlight the necessity for adaptation to increasing heat stress, especially in urban areas.
引用
收藏
页码:8997 / 9007
页数:11
相关论文
共 104 条
[61]  
Laaidi K, 2011, ENV HLTH PERSPECT, V120, P254, DOI DOI 10.1289/EHP.1103532
[62]   Towards European-scale convection-resolving climate simulations with GPUs: a study with COSMO 4.19 [J].
Leutwyler, David ;
Fuhrer, Oliver ;
Lapillonne, Xavier ;
Luthi, Daniel ;
Schar, Christoph .
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, 2016, 9 (09) :3393-3412
[63]   Synergistic Interactions between Urban Heat Islands and Heat Waves: The Impact in Cities Is Larger than the Sum of Its Parts* [J].
Li, Dan ;
Bou-Zeid, Elie .
JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, 2013, 52 (09) :2051-2064
[64]   Short-term association between environmental factors and hospital admissions due to dementia in Madrid [J].
Linares, C. ;
Culqui, D. ;
Carmona, R. ;
Ortiz, C. ;
Diaz, J. .
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, 2017, 152 :214-220
[65]   Modelling radiation fluxes in simple and complex environments: basics of the RayMan model [J].
Matzarakis, Andreas ;
Rutz, Frank ;
Mayer, Helmut .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY, 2010, 54 (02) :131-139
[66]  
Maucha G., 2010, TECH REP
[67]   Increasing probability of mortality during Indian heat waves [J].
Mazdiyasni, Omid ;
AghaKouchak, Amir ;
Davis, Steven J. ;
Madadgar, Shahrbanou ;
Mehran, Ali ;
Ragno, Elisa ;
Sadegh, Mojtaba ;
Sengupta, Ashmita ;
Ghosh, Subimal ;
Dhanya, C. T. ;
Niknejad, Mohsen .
SCIENCE ADVANCES, 2017, 3 (06)
[68]   More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century [J].
Meehl, GA ;
Tebaldi, C .
SCIENCE, 2004, 305 (5686) :994-997
[69]   Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change [J].
Mitchell, Daniel ;
Heaviside, Clare ;
Vardoulakis, Sotiris ;
Huntingford, Chris ;
Masato, Giacomo ;
Guillod, Benoit P. ;
Frumhoff, Peter ;
Bowery, Andy ;
Wallom, David ;
Allen, Myles .
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2016, 11 (07)
[70]  
Mora C, 2017, NAT CLIM CHANGE, V7, P501, DOI [10.1038/nclimate3322, 10.1038/NCLIMATE3322]