A scenario projection for the South China Sea - Further experience with field anomaly relaxation

This article describes the third phase of a research programme intended to validate the field anomaly relaxation (FAR) approach to the generation of scenarios for sociopolitical problems and to suggest improvements to the approach. The research vehicle is the sociopolitical context of the nations of the South China Sea. It is concluded that four main scenarios for that region can be developed and that these shed light on the region's problems. Improved methods were used to generate the field for the problem and suggestions are made for further research into the FAR approach. The conclusion from the three phases of the research is that FAR is a powerful and sophisticated approach to thinking about the unknowable future. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd