Market diffusion of household PV systems: Insights using the Bass model and solar water heaters market data

This paper aims to present insights about distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation technology diffusion in the household market. A quantitative approach using the Bass model to project distributed PV systems adoption is chosen to base and conduct the analysis. Since distributed PV in Brazil still presents a very small market penetration, historical data is still insufficient to obtain robust estimates. Therefore, parameters from PV markets of other countries and parameters from the solar water heaters (SWH) market in Brazil are used in the analysis. The latter approach is carefully justified. A comparative analysis of distributed PV and SWH market features indicates that SWH diffusion parameters lead to a better representation of innovators behavior for residential PV adoption in Brazil than the parameters borrowed from other countries, which are used by the official projections performed by the Brazilian regulator of the electricity sector. Moreover, we propose a different approach for estimating the final potential market. We discuss the limitations of the official projections, since results indicate that official projections overestimated the diffusion of residential PV market in the early years. Finally, it is suggested that inaccurate signals could be given to stakeholders. (C) 2020 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.