Extreme floods in the Meuse river over the past century: aggravated by land-use changes?

Recent floods in the Meuse river increased the public's concern about the risk of flooding. It is often assumed that the rapid land-use changes in the basin since the 1950s have aggravated these floods. This possibility has provided the motivation to analyse the flood peaks in the Meuse river and causal extreme precipitation in the basin during the past century. The historical land-use changes in the basin were also evaluated. The results indicate that both the flood peaks in the Meuse river and the antecedent precipitation depths in the basin have significantly increased since the early 1980s. Over the past century, the forest area in the upstream basin has changed little and most changes in the forest types, agricultural land and urbanisation occurred before the 1980s. The apparent changes in frequency and magnitude of floods in the Meuse river over the last two decades can apparently be broadly ascribed to climate variability. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.