Probability of biochemical recurrence by analysis of pathologic stage, gleason score, and margin status for localized prostate cancer

Objectives. The Partin tables provide pretreatment information regarding the probability of various pathologic stages (eg, organ confined, extraprostatic extension, and seminal vesicle or lymph node involvement). Although the pathologic stage serves as an excellent surrogate for outcome after radical prostatectomy (RRP), many patients and physicians want to know how the predictions made from the Partin tables can be translated into long-term biochemical recurrence-free survival. In this work, we go beyond the pathologic outcomes predicted by the Partin nomograms to provide long-term biochemical recurrence-free estimates on the basis of the pathologic data obtained at RRP to help counsel patients after surgery for prostate cancer. Methods. The study group comprised 1955 men treated by one surgeon with RRP and pelvic lymph node dissection for clinically localized disease (1989 to 200 1). The patients were followed up for at least I year postoperatively, and the disease-free survival rates were determined using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results. The pathologic stages were as follows: organ confined in 57%, extraprostatic extension in 35%, seminal vesicle involvement in 4%, and lymph node involvement in 4%. The prostatectomy Gleason score distribution was as follows: 2 to 4 in 1%, 5 to 6 in 63%, 7 in 30%, and 8 to 10 in 6%. Overall, a positive surgical margin was present in 9.8%. On the basis of the prostatectomy Gleason score, pathologic stage, and surgical margin status, the probability of long-term biochemical recurrence-free survival was divided into four groups: excellent, good, moderate, and low. Conclusions. These simple to use and explain risk groups can be used to predict long-term biochemical recurrence-free survival from pathologic stage data obtained at surgery or predicted from the Partin tables, along with surgical margin status and Gleason score information obtained at RRP. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc.