Predicting older drivers' accident involvement - Smeed's law revisited

被引：25

作者：

Hakamies-Blomqvist, L ^{[1
]}

Wiklund, M ^{[1
]}

Henriksson, P ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Swedish Natl Rd & Transport Res Inst, S-58195 Linkoping, Sweden

来源：

ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION | 2005年 / 37卷 / 04期

关键词：

driver; older; elderly; accident; risk;

D O I：

10.1016/j.aap.2005.03.009

中图分类号：

TB18 [人体工程学];

学科分类号：

1201 ;

摘要：

The present study used Swedish archival data on police-reported accidents and license statistics and Swedish questionnaire data on car use in order to test an underinvolvement. hypothesis of older drivers' (65-84 years) accident involvement, postulating that the increase. in older drivers' accident involvement is smaller than the increase in older drivers' presence in traffic. The results gave support to the hypothesis. Compared to the accident involvement trend in the general driver population, there was a relative decrease over time in older drivers' accident involvement per driver license and per active driver from 1983 to 1999. It is concluded that linear predictions of older drivers' accident involvement directly based on their increasing presence in traffic are likely to be overly pessimistic. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：675 / 680

页数：6

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