Projecting use of electric vehicles from household vehicle trials

Vehicle trials are an important source of information about how households would use battery electric vehicles. However, trial data are potentially biased because the novelty of the trial can introduce short-term changes in driving patterns and a positive effect for the technology can result from giving respondents special attention. In this study we examine these methodological issues using data collected from travel diaries and pre-trial and post-trial surveys as part of an extensive trial of prototype electric vehicles conducted by a major vehicle manufacturer. Households demonstrated that they can use the electric vehicle to make most of the everyday trips that were previously made on a conventional-fuel vehicle, but some trips will be shifted to other vehicles in the household's fleet. However, experience with electric vehicles does not change perceptions of desired vehicle range. Keeping a travel diary gave users direct feedback that they were usually travelling less than 50 miles per day, but there remained an expectation that vehicles should have a range of 100 miles or more. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.