An ensemble air-quality forecast over western Europe during an ozone episode

被引：84

作者：

Delle Monache, L ^{[1
]}

Stull, RB ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ British Columbia, Dept Earth & Ocean Sci, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT | 2003年 / 37卷 / 25期

关键词：

photochemical air quality; modeling; ozone; ensemble forecast;

D O I：

10.1016/S1352-2310(03)00475-8

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Multi-model ensemble averaging is tested as a technique for improving the accuracy of photochemical air-quality modeling. The performance of an ensemble-mean of four different photochemical models is tested against the individual models and the observations for a 6-day episode (31 July-5 August 1990), when high ozone levels were observed (up to 140 pbbv) over five monitoring stations in northwestern and central Europe. These models are the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) Model, the European Air Pollution Dispersion (EURAD) Model, the Long-Term Ozone Simulation (LOTOS) Model and the Regional Eulerian Model with three different chemistry schemes (REM3), and each model has different initial and boundary conditions. The ensemble approach shows promising results, giving an overall better performance than any single model, including good performance for ozone peak-value prediction. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：3469 / 3474

页数：6