Interpreting time-series analyses for continuous-time biological models-measles as a case study

被引:45
作者
Glass, K [1 ]
Xia, Y [1 ]
Grenfell, BT [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England
基金
英国惠康基金;
关键词
epidemiological models; measles; time-series analysis; population dynamics;
D O I
10.1016/S0022-5193(03)00031-6
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
An increasing number of recent studies involve the fitting of mechanistic models to ecological time-series. In some cases, it is necessary for these models to be discrete-time approximations of continuous-time processes. We test the validity of discretization in the case of measles, where time-series models have recently been developed to estimate ecological parameters directly from data. We find that a non-homogeneous contact function is necessary to capture the host-parasite interaction in a discrete-time model, even in the absence of heterogeneities due to spatial or age structure. We derive a mathematical relationship describing the expected departure from mass-action transmission in terms of the epidemiological parameters in the model, and identify conditions under which the discretization process may fail. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:19 / 25
页数:7
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