1. At their high-altitude overwintering sites in Mexico, monarch butterflies frequently are subjected to sub-zero degrees C temperatures during December-March. Although monarchs have moderate supercooling ability, two ecological factors strongly influence their capacity to resist freezing: wetting and exposure to the clear night sky. 2. As shown in Fig. 2, 50% of a population of butterflies with water on their body surfaces freeze at warmer sub-zero temperatures (-4.2 degrees C) compared to butterflies with no water on their bodies (-7.7 degrees C). 100% mortality occurs, respectively, at -7.7 degrees C and -15 degrees C. 3. Comparative measurements of rainfall within a large overwintering colony in Mexico indicated that the intact canopy acts as an umbrella that reduces butterfly wetting during winter storms. 4. Variable experimental exposure of butterflies to the clear night sky indicated that openings in the forest canopy increases radiational cooling and causes monarch body temperatures to drop as much as 4 degrees C below ambient air temperature. Monarchs under dense cover had body temperatures approximately the same as the ambient air temperature, but more exposed individuals had body temperatures below ambient in direct proportion to the degree of exposure. Consequently, forest thinning increases the probability that the butterflies will freeze to death. 5. Whereas both wetting and exposure are increased by disturbance of the forest canopy, the interaction of these two factors exacerbates freezing mortality during winter storms: 50% of dry and unexposed butterflies froze at -8 degrees C, whereas wetted and fully exposed butterflies froze at only -0.5 degrees C. 6. Butterflies inside and on the bottom of the fir bough clusters are better protected from wetting than those on the outside. This supports the hypothesis that the structure of the butterfly clusters has evolved through individual selection to avoid wetting. 7. The data strongly reinforce previous evidence that forest thinning should be totally prevented within and adjacent to the overwintering sites in order to minimize both wetting and exposure of the butterflies that synergistically increase winter mortality at the overwintering sites in Mexico.
