Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis

被引：51

作者：

Austin, John ^{[1
]}

Scinocca, J. ^{[16
]}

Plummer, D. ^{[14
]}

Oman, L. ^{[13
]}

Waugh, D. ^{[13
]}

Akiyoshi, H. ^{[2
]}

Bekki, S. ^{[3
]}

Braesicke, P. ^{[4
]}

Butchart, N. ^{[5
]}

Chipperfield, M. ^{[6
]}

Cugnet, D. ^{[3
]}

Dameris, M. ^{[7
]}

Dhomse, S. ^{[6
]}

Eyring, V. ^{[7
]}

Frith, S. ^{[8
,19
]}

Garcia, R. R. ^{[9
]}

Garny, H. ^{[7
]}

Gettelman, A. ^{[9
]}

Hardiman, S. C. ^{[5
]}

Kinnison, D. ^{[9
]}

Lamarque, J. F. ^{[9
]}

Mancini, E. ^{[10
]}

Marchand, M. ^{[3
]}

Michou, M. ^{[11
]}

Morgenstern, O. ^{[12
]}

Nakamura, T. ^{[2
]}

Pawson, S. ^{[8
]}

Pitari, G. ^{[10
]}

Pyle, J. ^{[4
]}

Rozanov, E. ^{[15
,20
]}

Shepherd, T. G. ^{[17
]}

Shibata, K. ^{[18
]}

Teyssedre, H. ^{[11
]}

Wilson, R. J. ^{[1
]}

Yamashita, Y. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08542 USA

[2] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan

[3] UPMC, CNRS, INSU, UVSQ,IPSL,LATMOS, F-75231 Paris, France

[4] Univ Cambridge, Dept Chem, Ctr Atmospher Sci, NCAS Climate Chem, Cambridge CB2 1EW, England

[5] Hadley Ctr, Met Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England

[6] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England

[7] Inst Phys Atmosphare, Deutsch Zentrum Luft & Raumfahrt, D-82234 Wessling, Germany

[8] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA

[9] NCAR, Boulder, CO 80305 USA

[10] Univ Aquila, Dipartimento Fis, I-161700 Laquila, Italy

[11] CNRM, GAME, F-31057 Toulouse, France

[12] Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Omakau 9352, Lauder, New Zealand

[13] Johns Hopkins Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Baltimore, MD 21218 USA

[14] Environm Canada, Sci & Technol Branch, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada

[15] World Radiat Ctr, Phys Meteorol Observ, CH-7260 Davos, Switzerland

[16] Univ Victoria, CCMA, Victoria, BC V8W 3V6, Canada

[17] Univ Toronto, Dept Phys, Toronto, ON M5S 1A7, Canada

[18] Japan Meteorol Agcy, Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan

[19] Sci Syst & Applicat Inc, Beltsville, MD USA

[20] ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

来源：

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES | 2010年 / 115卷

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE MODEL; QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION; STRATOSPHERIC OZONE; TECHNICAL NOTE; SIMULATION; TRANSPORT; TRENDS; CIRCULATION; SENSITIVITY; IMPACT;

D O I：

10.1029/2010JD013857

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

[1] Simulations of 15 coupled chemistry climate models, for the period 1960-2100, are presented. The models include a detailed stratosphere, as well as including a realistic representation of the tropospheric climate. The simulations assume a consistent set of changing greenhouse gas concentrations, as well as temporally varying chlorofluorocarbon concentrations in accordance with observations for the past and expectations for the future. The ozone results are analyzed using a nonparametric additive statistical model. Comparisons are made with observations for the recent past, and the recovery of ozone, indicated by a return to 1960 and 1980 values, is investigated as a function of latitude. Although chlorine amounts are simulated to return to 1980 values by about 2050, with only weak latitudinal variations, column ozone amounts recover at different rates due to the influence of greenhouse gas changes. In the tropics, simulated peak ozone amounts occur by about 2050 and thereafter total ozone column declines. Consequently, simulated ozone does not recover to values which existed prior to the early 1980s. The results also show a distinct hemispheric asymmetry, with recovery to 1980 values in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics ahead of the chlorine return by about 20 years. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, ozone is simulated to return to 1980 levels only 10 years ahead of chlorine. In the Antarctic, annually averaged ozone recovers at about the same rate as chlorine in high latitudes and hence does not return to 1960s values until the last decade of the simulations.

引用

页数：23

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