Probabilistic choice vs risk analysis - Conflicts and synthesis in power system planning

被引:74
作者
Miranda, V [1 ]
Proenca, LM
机构
[1] Inst Eng Sist & Computadores Macau, Taipa, Macao, Peoples R China
[2] Univ Macau, FST, Taipa, Macao, Peoples R China
[3] Inst Engn Sistemas & Computadores, Lisbon, Portugal
关键词
D O I
10.1109/59.709095
中图分类号
TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];
学科分类号
0808 ; 0809 ;
摘要
This paper shows the conceptual differences between adopting a probabilistic weighting of the futures and a risk averse strategy, in power system planning under uncertain scenarios. It is illustrated with a distribution planning problem, where optimal solutions in both cases are determined by a Genetic Algorithm. It shows that the probabilistic approach is less safe and cannot detect some interesting solutions.
引用
收藏
页码:1038 / 1043
页数:6
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